Report shows today U.S. home prices falling by 8.9% in the Q4 2007, which marks one full year of declining values.
Are we out of the woods yet? Did we find a housing bottom?
I think not. Even if the consumer confidence will rebound (it's expected to report today another fall, to 82.00), it will take a while to get rid of all the housing supply, in addition to clear out the foreclosures. Experts say that housing prices may fall by another 15-20% in 2008. This sounds drastic, but it may happen.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Monday, February 11, 2008
Now what?
The markets got what they asked for, and more, at the end of January when Mr. Bernanke reduced the Fed rate twice, by 125 basis points total. The markets have responded in a whispering fashion, and they signal that they are not done finding a bottom. The credit crisis still looms large over the financials, mainly because the Wall Street doesn't know if we will discover other write-offs (read "losses") or we will read about another rogue trader in other places.
Dow Jones Industrials
Close 12182.13
Percentage change: YTD: -8.16%
Nasdaq Composite
Close 2304.85
Percentage change: YTD: -13.10%
S&P 500
Close 1331.29
Percentage change: YTD: -9.33
For S&P 500, we are still looking at 1320 as support and 1400 as resistance, a long range where I think that S&P 500 will be for a while.
If you're looking for a bargain at these levels, I think Cisco is a good candidate.
The company reported fiscal results for its second quarter, ended January, which were in line with expectations. The revenue outlook for the next quarter, ending in April, will be at 10%, short of both Wall Street expectations of 15% and Cisco's internal target of 12-17%.
Sitting at $23.53 per share, just $2 above its 52-week low, Cisco may be a good stock to start nibling at. We are not talking about the internet bubble here, and as I heard on some conference calls, the tech spending doesn't see too much slowdown. This is the new phase of the Internet growth, and the desire for increased capacity and bandwidth is still there. All the video on demand, like YouTube, will eventually get HD and Cisco is there to deliver. With more than $22 billion in cash, or $3.7 per share, Cisco may even distribute a fat dividend, since we're pretty sure that the tax environment will change, no matter who will come to the White House this fall.
Dow Jones Industrials
Close 12182.13
Percentage change: YTD: -8.16%
Nasdaq Composite
Close 2304.85
Percentage change: YTD: -13.10%
S&P 500
Close 1331.29
Percentage change: YTD: -9.33
For S&P 500, we are still looking at 1320 as support and 1400 as resistance, a long range where I think that S&P 500 will be for a while.
If you're looking for a bargain at these levels, I think Cisco is a good candidate.
The company reported fiscal results for its second quarter, ended January, which were in line with expectations. The revenue outlook for the next quarter, ending in April, will be at 10%, short of both Wall Street expectations of 15% and Cisco's internal target of 12-17%.
Sitting at $23.53 per share, just $2 above its 52-week low, Cisco may be a good stock to start nibling at. We are not talking about the internet bubble here, and as I heard on some conference calls, the tech spending doesn't see too much slowdown. This is the new phase of the Internet growth, and the desire for increased capacity and bandwidth is still there. All the video on demand, like YouTube, will eventually get HD and Cisco is there to deliver. With more than $22 billion in cash, or $3.7 per share, Cisco may even distribute a fat dividend, since we're pretty sure that the tax environment will change, no matter who will come to the White House this fall.
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